A Broken Eastern Promise? Realized Dynamic Effect of Retrofits on Energy Consumption in Soviet-Era Multi-Apartment Buildings

Retrofit programmes of old and very energy inefficient housing stock from the Soviet era are widely believed to be a rear win-win opportunity for mitigating climate change and tackling acute energy poverty issues in Eastern European city neighbourhoods. Still, many people do not undertake retrofits regardless of government subsidization and the push for more energy efficiency. This begs the question – do these retrofits really deliver the promised returns? This paper aims to study the effects of retrofit programmes of old Soviet-era multi-apartment buildings on realized dynamic energy savings in Lithuania by analysing monthly energy bills. Our findings suggest that retrofits are associated with a 50% to 59% reduction in average space heating consumption across different post-retrofit periods. Moreover, retrofits also have a short-lived effect on electricity savings of 3% to 3.6%. However, our cost-benefit calculations indicate that energy savings were not sufficiently large to cover the initial investment costs