A demographic perspective on the future of European labour force participation

While the Draghi report primarily focuses on increasing labour productivity, it also makes a compelling case for mitigating the decline in the workforce by using the untapped potential of labour force participation and employment. Forward-looking analyses of the EU labour force require taking into account the ongoing process of women's empowerment and emancipation, changes in the population's educational profile, and varying assumptions about international migration. By factoring in these elements and in particular the projected changes in the educational attainment of the EU workforce, we emphasise the importance of investing in skills for the future of EU competitiveness. Our projections show that such investment will not be able to compensate for the EU's demographic decline, which remains of concern, but can mitigate the reduction in the number of workers. In a hypothetical extreme positive scenario, the projected adverse decline in labour force could be offset through the simultaneous exploitation of the entire potential of different forms of labour force activation. Estimates of the impact on GDP indicate that human capital growth, which is already embedded in the evolution of the EU population, is an area where the EU could have a competitive advantage.