A Framework for Estimating U.S. WTO Domestic Support to 2015

The framework allows comprehensive and consistent measurement and classification of U.S. domestic support to 2015 under different assumptions. Projections of future U.S. domestic support patterns are made with estimates published in the USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections. We also use information from the OECD, FAPRI, NASS, and our own estimates. We present key elements and an overview of our analytical framework, assumptions of a baseline scenario, and some analytical results and observations arising from our analysis. The baseline scenario extends the classification of programs in WTO notifications to 2015. The framework consists of 65 spreadsheets, which are grouped into 4 analytical stages: calculation of program estimates by commodity; calculation of product-specific aggregate measurement of support by commodity; estimates of major U.S. agricultural programs; and estimates for WTO boxes and the overall value of production. The main results of the baseline scenario suggest that the United States would be able to maintain its Uruguay Round commitments under relatively optimistic USDA Baseline assumptions. Because the U.S. overall value of production is projected to increase by almost 40% from 2002 to 2015, de minimis allowances will rise to US$26 billion by 2015. The framework allows us to calculate possible U.S. domestic support expenditures under alternative assumptions about rules and commitments resulting from the Doha negotiations, such as reductions in de minimis percentages, commitments on Total AMS and overall support. This enables us to better understand implications for WTO negotiations.