A hybrid data analytic approach to predict college graduation status and its determinative factors

Purpose The prediction of graduation rates of college students has become increasingly important to colleges and universities across the USA and the world. Graduation rates, also referred to as completion rates, directly impact university rankings and represent a measurement of institutional performance and student success. In recent years, there has been a concerted effort by federal and state governments to increase the transparency and accountability of institutions, making “graduation rates” an important and challenging university goal. In line with this, the main purpose of this paper is to propose a hybrid data analytic approach which can be flexibly implemented not only in the USA but also at various colleges across the world which would help predict the graduation status of undergraduate students due to its generic nature. It is also aimed at providing a means of determining and ranking the critical factors of graduation status. Design/methodology/approach This study focuses on developing a novel hybrid data analytic approach to predict the degree completion of undergraduate students at a four-year public university in the USA. Via the deployment of the proposed methodology, the data were analyzed using three popular data mining classifications methods (i.e. decision trees, artificial neural networks, and support vector machines) to develop predictive degree completion models. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the relative importance of each predictor factor driving the graduation. Findings The sensitivity analysis of the most critical factors in predicting graduation rates is determined to be fall-term grade-point average, housing status (on campus or commuter), and which high school the student attended. The least influential factors of graduation status are ethnicity, whether or not a student had work study, and whether or not a student applied for financial aid. All three data analytic models yielded high accuracies ranging from 71.56 to 77.61 percent, which validates the proposed model. Originality/value This study presents uniqueness in that it presents an unbiased means of determining the driving factors of college graduation status with a flexible and powerful hybrid methodology to be implemented at other similar decision-making settings.