A Longitudinal Analysis of Trajectory Changes in the Software Industry: The Case of the Content Management Application Segment

The software industry is changing as a result of the rising influence both of packaged and of Free/Libre/Open Source Software (FLOSS), but the change trajectory of the industry is still not well understood. This article aims to contribute to clarifying software industry evolution through a longitudinal study, using Industry Change Trajectory Theory to explain and predict the evolution of the Content Management Systems (CMS) segment and the extent to which its results can be generalized to the overall software industry. Our data analysis shows that CMS players are experiencing a modification of their segments' change trajectory. While McGahan in 2004 recognized that the software industry was in a creative change trajectory, it has subsequently faced strong competition on its core assets, (i.e. applications) and the empirical results of our longitudinal study from 2002 to 2007 show the CMS segment is now in a radical change trajectory, due to the rapid obsolescence of its core activities. The paper discusses the changes affecting the segment, and proposes extending the outcome of the study to other segments of the software industry