A MODEL FOR PREDICTING PERFORMANCE IN INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS COURSES

The purpose of this study was to conceptualize and empirically test a model intended to predict statistics performance in reformed introductory statistics courses that analyzes the roles of students individual factors and interpersonal factors and statistics performance. In the predicted model, there were hypothesized relationships between and among the individual factor-attitude toward statistics and the interpersonal factor-experience with group work that would be mediated by the degree of active engagement in the reformed course activities. That is, the introductory statistics course students exhibiting positive attitude toward statistics or experiences with group work would report higher levels of performance in the degree of active engagement in the reformed course activities, which would, in turn, lead to higher levels of statistics performance. This study uses existing data collected during Fall 2004 by the Pennsylvania State Universitys center for teaching excellence on a statistics course that had been redesigned using innovative ways of teaching. A total of 249 students data were used in the analysis. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was the data analysis method used in this study to test for model fit, as well as to provide information on statistics performance through analysis of direct, indirect, and total effect. The results from the confirmatory factor analysis supported the further use of the attitude and experience with group measurement model as a part of the ecological theory perspective of statistics performance model in addition to hypothesizing causal links among latent variables. The ecological theory perspective of statistics performance model analysis suggested that the modified ecological model was an excellent explanation of the data. This suggests that statistics performance in the introductory statistics course could be predicted by the relationships among the four selected variables: attitude toward statistics, experience with group work, lab quizzes, and group projects. The results showed that there was a significant and positive direct relationship between the individual factor-attitude toward statistics and statistics performance, but not an indirect relationship. In addition, there was a significant and positive indirect relationship between the interpersonal factor-experience with group work and statistics performance. However, an unexpected result in this study was the significant, negative direct effect of the experience of group work on statistics performance. The current study contributes to the general understanding of statistics performance, which may be of interest to theorists and statistics instructors as they design their courses. Examination of varied relationships among attitudes toward statistics, experience of group work, and the reformed statistics course activities and statistics performance can also enhance the ecology perspective model of ecology development systems theories.