A Multi-layer Scenario Analysis for Sustainable International Transport

It is clear that the future of the transport sector is fraught with uncertainties, as the system can be influenced by many factors that can develop in various ways. The aim of this paper is to gain insight into the future development of the transportation sector. It presents the development of the transport sector based on four globalisation scenarios. On three different scale levels (global, European and Dutch) four future images of the transportation market are constructed. The expected implications of these scenarios are mapped out in a clear description of the various relevant aspects, such as modal split and spatial organisation. In addition, this paper also provides empirical insight into expected transport flows of passenger (passenger kilometres) and freight transport (ton-kilometres) in 2020, based on data from 1995. It appears that globalisation leads in all scenarios and on each scale level to a considerable growth of transported volumes.