A new perspective on European labour migration : a case study of the opportunity cost for Greece and Poland

This paper addresses a critical gap in migration literature by quantifying the opportunity cost of labour emigration for countries of origin within the European Union, using Greece and Poland as case studies from 2004 to 2019. Despite the growing policy and academic interest in the effects of emigration, existing research has largely overlooked its economic cost for sending countries. Building upon the model developed by Radonji? & Bobi? (2020), this study develops a framework to estimate the total opportunity cost of emigration, including direct costs of education, the opportunity cost of foregone productivity during education, fixed costs of emigration, loss of GDP contribution, and offsetting factors such as remittances and foregone social benefits. The findings reveal substantial economic costs: approximately €305 billion for Greece and €175 billion for Poland over the 16-year period, translating to annual per capita costs of €23,268 and €7,047, respectively. Despite a higher volume of Polish emigrants, Greece experiences a higher economic burden, primarily due to the higher emigration rates among highly educated individuals. The paper concludes with policy recommendations aimed at reducing emigration outflows, facilitating return migration, and aligning education with labour market needs. The presented model offers a replicable and adaptable tool for policymakers and researchers to assess and address the cost of emigration in emerging and developed economies.