A panel study of factor accumulation and export quality

Cross-sectional data show Global North countries export higher quality products at a point in time. Product-level panel data can address if countries improve their export quality over time. The literature has addressed this practically relevant panel question only in small samples over the short term. We addressed it for a large sample, over the long run, focusing on the hitherto overlooked endogeneity between export quality and factor accumulation and the role of export composition. We utilized a two-tiered panel: the panel of countries and the panel of products each country trades. We found some evidence that middle-income countries often upgrade export quality within the same product, but that high- and low-income countries do this less often. Our results appear to support product cycle theory: some countries climb the value ladder, others are competed off from the ladder's top, and new countries enter markets. Technology appears to be a potential basis for consolidating trade competitiveness over time, as skill accumulation becomes more widespread across countries and loses significance as an explanatory variable. Our results provide some explanation of why Global North countries might resist sharing technology. This research is timely with deadlocked multilateral trade negotiations and looming trade wars. It attempts to contribute to an evidence-based guide to trade policy.