A Simple Procedure for Merging Expert Opinions to Achieve Superior Portfolio Performance

In this paper, the authors describe a simple procedure for blending statistical estimates with expert opinions to produce a forward-looking view of the performance of assets. They discuss the impact of behavioural biases on the views and propose general modelling principles to biases. Standard linear filtering techniques play a leading role in our approach. Filtering blends statistical estimates and expert opinions seamlessly, while opening the way to the application of dynamic portfolio optimisation techniques