A stock-flow matching approach to evaluation of public training program in a high unemployment environment

Monthly panel (1998-2003) data from regional labor offices in Latvia are used to analyze the matching process in a high unemployment – low labor demand environment and to evaluate the impact of active labor market policy programs on outflows from unemployment. Results suggest that the hiring process is driven by a stock-flow rather than by a traditional matching function: the stock of unemployed at the beginning of the month and flow of vacancies arriving during the month are the key determinants of outflows from unemployment to employment, while stock of vacancies and inflow of unemployed do not play any significant role. We find positive and significant effect of training programs on outflows from unemployment to employment, thus providing strong evidence against recent cuts in training expenditures.