A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States

The methodology used in this paper has three distinguishing features: the natural rate of unemployment and potential output are jointly estimated; the procedure integrates wage and price data with "real" and structural data; and the approach encompasses many of the methods found in the literature. The results indicate that potential output growth has recovered somewhat during the early 1980s, but remains below the rapid rates of increase in the late 1960s. The natural rate, after rising during the late 1960s and the 1970s, declined in the 1980s. Medium-term prospects for potential output and the natural rate are also assessed.