A Time-Series Econometric Framework for Modelling the Distribution of Intraday Rooftop Solar Generation

As we grow more reliant on renewable generation sources to meet our energy requirements, forecasts of the generation output become more important. This paper proposes a time-series econometric framework for modelling and forecasting intraday rooftop solar generation, one that relies only on historical generation data. Some elements have been adapted from financial time series models to deal with the strongly diurnal, and seasonal nature of the data. Based on an application to regional wide aggregate output, it is shown that this framework captures the important features of the data and produces reliable forecasts of the level and volatility of output. This is achieved using traditional time-series methods, and without relying on large-scale weather information