A transição demográfica no Brasil: as possibilidades e os desafios para a economia e a sociedade

Between 1940 and 2000, 129 million inhabitants were added to the Brazilian population, an average of 21,5 million per decade. In the first half of XXI century, estimatives suggest, on average, an addition of 90 million inhabitants to the Brazilian population, 2,5 times the population of Argentina in 2005, 18 million inhabitants per decade. Less than in the previous century, but still a considerable population. This is the first demographic question to be analyzed in this article, from the perspective of its consequences for the public policies design. The second is the reduction of the fertility and not only its impact in the growth of the population, but also in the age structure. From the perspective of the transition of the age structure, three phenomena must be considered: reduction of the relative weight of the young population; increase of the degree of population aging, the ratio of people with sixty and five years of age or more; and the growth of the working-age population until 2050. The set of public policies that are conditioned by the age structure of the population, for example, the policies in the field of education, health, labor market and social security, must take into account the demographic changes. Otherwise, its efficiency will be reduced and it will not fulfill its main goal: economic development with reduction of the social inequalities.