Achieving universal electricity access in line with SDG7 using GIS-based Model : an application of OnSSET for rural electrification planning in Nigeria

Achieving universal electricity access by 2030 is one of the energy-related development targets in Nigeria and the electricity access rate is estimated at 62%, with urban being 91% and rural 30%. In line with the set SDG7 target of achieving universal electricity access by 2030, this study examines the least-cost options for providing electricity access to thousands of unelectrified communities in Nigeria using the open source spatial electrification toolkit (OnSSET). The study focuses on the coverage area of one of the distribution companies, i.e. Kaduna Electricity Distribution Company (KEDCo) which covers Kaduna, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara States in the North-Western part of Nigeria. Spatial data covering different areas such as population, digital elevation, energy resource availability, coverage of the distribution lines, among otherswere obtained from different sources and used in the OnSSET model. The result shows that by 2030, mini-grid PV will be the least-cost technology option for 58.82% of the unelectrified communities, followed by grid-extension (20.87%), standalone PV (20.15%), and mini-grid hydro (0.17%). Further, by 2025, the total number of settlements to be electrified will be 18,182. The number of settlements electrified by 2030 will be 22,727 with an estimated population of 15.4 million. To the achieve universal electrification, a total investment of US$4.97 billion is required by 2025 with an additional US$2.88 billion by 2030. The study recommends that the state and local governments should play a key roles in providing enabling environment for community-led off-grid projects since most of the settlements require electrification projects that are less than 20 kW.