Adapting Multireservoir Operation to Shifting Patterns of Water Supply and Demand

The aim of this study is to determine whether dam reoperation (the adjustment of reservoir operating rules) is an effective adaptation strategy to reduce the potential impacts of climate change and regional socio-economic developments. The Xinanjiang-Fuchunjiang reservoir cascade, located in Hangzhou Region (China), is selected as case study. We use a scenario-based approach to explore the effects of various likely degrees of water stress for the future period between 2011 and 2040, which are compared to the control period from 1971 to 2000. The scenario impacts are simulated with the WEAP water allocation model, which is interlinked with the NSGA-II metaheuristic algorithm in order to derive optimal operating rules adapted to each scenario. Reservoir performance is measured with the Shortage Index (SI) and Mean Annual Energy Production (MAEP). For the investigated scenarios, adapted operating rules on average reduce the SI with 84 % and increase the MAEP with 6.4 % (compared to the projected future performance of conventional operation). Based on the optimization results, we conclude that for the studied case dam reoperation is an effective adaptation strategy to reduce the impact of changing patterns of water supply and demand, even though it is insufficient to completely restore system performance to that of the control period. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014