ADOPT: a tool for predicting adoption of agricultural innovations

A wealth of evidence exists about the adoption of new practices and technologies in agriculture but there does not appear to have been any attempt to simplify this vast body of research knowledge into a model to make quantitative predictions across a broad range of contexts. This is despite increasing demand from research, development and extension agencies for estimates of likely extent of adoption and the likely timeframes for project impacts. This paper reports on the reasoning underpinning the development of ADOPT (Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool). The tool has been designed to: 1) predict an innovation‘s likely peak extent of adoption and likely time for reaching that peak; 2) encourage users to consider the influence of a structured set of factors affecting adoption; and 3) engage R, D & E managers and practitioners by making adoptability knowledge and considerations more transparent and understandable. The tool is structured around four aspects of adoption: 1) characteristics of the innovation, 2) characteristics of the population, 3) actual advantage of using the innovation, and 4) learning of the actual advantage of the innovation. The conceptual framework used for developing ADOPT is described.