Algeria's economic growth remained robust in 2024 but is expected to slow moderately in 2025. Strong investment momentum and robust growth in household consumption, both fueled by government spending, supported manufacturing and services activity, while agricultural production accelerated. However, growth in domestic demand boosted imports, which, combined with lower hydrocarbon production and exports, weighed on growth. Overall, non-hydrocarbon GDP grew at a pace of 4.8 percent, offsetting the 1.4 percent contraction in GDP from hydrocarbons. Real GDP growth is projected at 3.3 percent in 2025, driven by the rebound in growth in the hydrocarbon sectors (+1.6 percent), boosted by the recovery of OPEC production quotas and gas production. Non-hydrocarbon growth is expected to slow (+3.6 percent), driven by the expected consolidation of public spending, which would be more marked for investment. Agricultural production is expected to remain robust despite limited rainfall, offsetting the slowdown in industry and services. The analysis of productivity trends in different sectors offers avenues for reflection to accelerate the structural transformation of the Algerian economy. The public-spending-led growth model resulted in important economic and social achievements in the 2000s, before slowing down in the last decade as the pace of spending growth became unsustainable. In doing so, this growth model has steered employment to low-value-added sectors, including non-commercial services and construction. In addition, a comparative analysis of Algerian productivity suggests a heterogeneous performance, with strong momentum in the agricultural sector contrasting with limited gains in the manufacturing sector. Thus, a growth acceleration could be achieved by increasing productivity gains in the manufacturing and services sectors, on the one hand, and a gradual reallocation of employment to high-value-added sectors on the other, combined with a gradual rebalancing of public spending. Such an economic transformation calls for targeted cross-cutting and sectoral policies to support growth and jobs in the private sector, while equipping workers with the necessary skills
