Alternative Market Access Scenarios in the Agriculture Trade Negotiations of the Doha Round

The article explores possible outcomes of the Doha Development Agenda by simulating agricultural liberalization scenarios with a modified version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and the related version 6.0 database. A 2013 baseline is employed to analyze two hypotheses in the areas of market access and export competition. Proportional cuts in tariffs are compared with a Swiss-formula approach. Welfare gains arise both in developed and developing countries, and, at least in principle, both groups should support deep reforms. Results suggest that the choice of the nature of the formula is not crucial in determining an effective increase in market access.