Ein alternativer Indikator der deutschen Geldpolitik. Untersuchung im Rahmen eines strukturellen VAR-Modells / An Improved Indicator of German Monetary Policy A Structural VAR Analysis

Summary The day-to-day interbank rate usually is taken as an indicator of Bundesbank policy. But this neither fits in the institutional settings in Germany nor the identification problem is solved, because this interest rate reflects supply-side as well as demand-side shocks. The purpose of the paper is to include the open market transactions under repurchase agreements as the most important instrument of the Bundesbank. The resulting non-recursive structural VAR model produces impulse response functions indicating that the effectiveness of monetary policy is underestimated in the standard model. Forecast error variance decomposition indicates that demandside shocks really are an important source of day-to-day interbank rate innovations. In comparison the developed indicator reflects autonomous monetary policy. A transfer of the results to the Eurosystem is possible because just as the Bundesbank the European Central Bank provides the bulk of liquidity through the main refinancing operations.