AMUSE: analysis of mobility using simultaneous equations : present population of refugees in Poland

Due to the conflict in Ukraine, which escalated on 24th February 2022, and caused a large inflow o f Ukrainian c itizens t o P oland, a n eed t o i nvestigate t his phenomenon b y official statistics has arisen. When it comes to tracking the movement of refugees, statistical and administrative data sources fail due to the lack of timeliness or spatial granularity. Therefore, official statistics is reaching for big data sources which seem to be complementary to statistical and administrative data sources. In this paper, we deal with the synthetic Mobile Network Operator (MNO) daily data obtained from SIM cards issued to Ukrainian refugees by one of MNOs operating in Poland. We propose AMUSE, a workflow for data analysis, a model for the data deduplication and mobility estimation as well as a simple estimator of the present population. All these functions of AMUSE are based on the aggregated signaling data on time and territory.