Análise das flutuações econômicas no Brasil, de 1991 a 2008, a partir dos modelos RBC

Fluctuation Economic research grow up from 80’s with the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models (DSGE), where the agent are search for the optimum point at the intertemporal decisions, that is decision over time of how consumers make choice between present and future consumption at the uncertain environment. The real business cycles (RBC) are example this kind of DSGE models. The objectives of the paper are understands the theoretical structure of the RBC model and compare it with the Brazilian economy. The economic real showed that consumption and investment are pro-cyclic and the investment is more volatile than the consumption, the real wage and paid hours were pro-cyclic, where this second variable was more volatile. The artificial economic was the Hansen benchmark real business cycle model with indivisible labor and the stochastic neoclassical growth model. Between the real and artificial economic, the variable interest was more different, that direction was anticyclic and pro-cyclic respectively. The RBC model with parameters of the economic Brazilian date, the adherence better, when looking to relative volatile in product relationship.