An analysis of international linkages in strike activity
The international pattern of strike activity has been a source ofinterest to both policy makers and researchers. The worldwide declinein strike actitvity over the last decade or two has prompted researchersto explore, among other things, the extent to which internationalchanges in strike activity have been mirrored locally. While differentresearchers have taken different views on the importance ofinternational influences on local activity, little has been done toexplore the individual linkages between countries within a VAR(vector autoregression) framework. This article attempts this.We address the issue of interdependence in quarterly strikeactivity for eight OECD countries (Australia, USA, UK, NZ, France,Japan, Italy and Canada) by firstly reporting simple correlationcoefficients for strike rate variables for the period 1960-98. We notethe preponderance of positive correlation coefficients between thevarious countries.Second, we test for bivariate Granger-causality, finding aconsiderable degree of interdependence - though these findings may beaffected by the assumptions made about lag lengths (a not uncommonfinding associated with this methodology).Thirdly, and perhaps most importantly, we examine thecointegration characteristics of an 8-country (8-variable) VAR systemusing the Johansen approach for identifying the number ofcointegrating equations (vectors) amongst the variables in the system.The results of this exercise suggest the presence of a small number ofcointegrating vectors within the system. This in turn suggests thatthe system has a tendency to 'wander' from some potential stead state equilibrium value. However, it is found that when global labour market'agitation factors' (the estimated GECO unemployment rateand nominal GOP growth rate) are included in the system, a greaterdegree of relationship binding is in evidence. This finding isconsistent with a view that global labour-market agitation factors area major driving force in explaining 'global' patterns of strike activity.Next, we employ a generalised impulse response analysis togauge the expected effect on 'global' strike activity of changes is thelabour-market agitation factors. Finally, some concluding thoughtsare proffered.
Year of publication: |
2003
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Authors: | Perry Leonard ; Wilson Patrick |
Publisher: |
Group Researching Organisations, Work, Employment and Skills (GROWES) |
Saved in:
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