An Analysis of International Raisin Trade: A Gravity Model Approach

The countries competing for the world Raisin Market are Chile, Greece, Iran, South Africa, Turkey, and the United States. Raisin is one of the top Turkish export products. Turkish raisin sector is facing an increasing competition in international markets. The aim of this work is to explain the magnitude of the trade flows for raisin from Turkey and other exporting countries to its main importing countries. This objective has been reached by establishing an appropriate econometric model derived from an extended form of the “Gravity Model”. To apply gravity model, a panel data with the most important six exporters of raisin and their importing countries between the years of 1999- 2008 were set up. Panel data models estimated with pooled ordinary least squares and fixed effects model under some diagnostic tests. Finally, some proposals and suggestions are developed for increasing the international competitiveness of the raisin production.