International studies and epidemiological data have revealed a strong association between salmonellosis and chicken meat. This association provides serious challenges for food safety and international trade. Microbiological Risk Assessment is a food safety tool that is used to determine the incidence of food borne illnesses. The procedure identifies a microbiological hazard in the entire food continuum (from farm to fork), and estimates the adverse effects to human health, of ingesting the microbial hazard. The Assessment integrates four steps, hazard identification, hazard characterisation, exposure assessment and risk characterisation, to produce a practical estimate of risk. In each step, knowledge of the prevalence and concentration of the pathogen, and the probability and magnitude of health effects, are combined to represent a cause and effect chain. An approach to a quantitative risk assessment of Salmonella in broiler chicken in Trinidad is examined. In this approach, Salmonella and chicken meat are linked to human illness from consultation with food safety experts and the evaluation of epidemiological data and information. Historical epidemiological data from the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre and the National Surveillance Unit (Trinidad and Tobago), supplemented with international epidemiological data, are best suited to develop a dose-response model. In the exposure assessment, data on the levels of Salmonella at the risk- determining stages are analysed. Sampling and analysis of chicken meat and the farm environment are instituted to estimate the source and frequency of Salmonella. Where sampling of broiler chicken meat is not practical, survey data provide values for the factors that influence growth and death of Salmonella. Predictive models are then used to estimate the changes in the concentration of pathogens in the food, prior to consumption. Finally, in the risk characterization module the information derived from hazard characterization and exposure assessment, are integrated using Monte Carlo modelling, @Risk computer software, to produce a numerical estimate of the probability of salmonellosis from the consumption of chicken meat.
