Based on an idea by Kosmulski, Franceschini et al. (2012, Scientometrics 92(3), 621–641) propose to classify a publication as “successful” when it receives more citations than a specific comparison term (CT). In the intention of the authors CT should be a suitable estimate of the number of citations that a publication – in a certain scientific context and period of time – should potentially achieve. According to this definition, the success-index is defined as the number of successful papers, among a group of publications examined, such as those associated to a scientist or a journal. In the first part of the paper, the success-index is recalled, discussing its properties and limitations. Next, relying on the theory of Information Production Processes (IPPs), an informetric model of the index is formulated, for a better comprehension of the index and its properties. Particular emphasis is given to a theoretical sensitivity analysis of the index.
