An Integrated System Dynamics Model for Analyzing Behaviour of the Social-Energy-Economic-Climatic System: Model Description

The feedback based integrated assessment model ANEMI represents the society-biosphereclimate- economy-energy system of the earth and biosphere. The development of ANEMI model is done using the system dynamics simulation approach that (a) allows understanding and modeling of complex global change and (b) assists in the investigation of possible policy options for mitigating, and/or adopting to global changing conditions, within an integrated assessment modeling framework. This report presents ANEMI model and its nine individual sectors: climate, carbon cycle, land-use, population, food production, hydrologic cycle, water demand, water quality, and energy-economy. Two versions of the model are developed and presented in the report. The first one represents the society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system on a global level. The second one is developed for regional presentation of Canada. The development of Canada model is based on the top down approach and various disaggregation techniques. To evaluate market and nonmarket costs and benefits of climate change, ANEMI model integrates an economic approach, with a focus on the international energy stock and fuel price, with climate interrelations and temperature change. The market clearance mechanism of economy sector introduces optimization within the simulation framework, which makes the model unique and different from any other integrated assessment model available in the published literature. The model takes account of all major greenhouse gases (GHG) influencing global temperature and sea-level variation.Several of the model sectors are built from the basic structure of the previous version of ANEMI. However, they are integrated in a novel way, the water sectors in particular. The integration of optimization within the simulation framework of the ANEMI model is timely, as recognition of the importance of energy based economic activities in determining long-term Earth-system behaviour grows. Experimentation with different policy scenarios demonstrated their consequences on future behaviour of the society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system through feedback based interactions. The use of ANEMI model improves both, scientific understanding and socio-economic policy development strategy.This report describes the model structure in details and illustrates its use through the analysis of three policy scenarios.