Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Penurunan Fertilitas Di Sumatera Utara

The purpose of this study is to analyze the factors that affect fertility or Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 25 regencies/cities in North Sumatera in 2004-2008. The independent variables that used in this study are GDP per capita, life expectacy at birth, education index, participation of women labor force and percentage of women which 15-49 years old are using contraception.Data used in this research is secondary data in the form of pooled data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) in 2004-2008. Research method that used in this study is Pooled Least Squared (PLS), by using Eviews 5.1.The result of the study shows that simultaneously, all of the independent variables are significant in influencing Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 25 regencies/cities in North Sumatera. As partial, regression result shows that GDP per capita, life expectacy at birth and education index have influence on Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 25 regencies/cities in North Sumatera in 2004-2008 and are statistically significant at alpha 1% and 5%.Demographic components are important in development process of a country. So that, this components can be used as a benchmark of success in the development of that country. Fertility is one of demographic components. The others are mortality, migration, social mobility and marriage.