Analisis Harga Tandan Buah Segar (TBS) Kelapa Sawit Di Sumatera Utara

The objective of the research is to find out the price of fresh fruit bunch (FFB) in North Sumatera. Specificly the objective of this research are : to find out cointegration between the price of fresh fruit bunch (FFB), the price of cooking oil and the price of fresh fruit bunch (FFB), the price of foreign exchange rates and the price of fresh fruit bunch (FFB), the price of coconut oil and the price of fresh fruit bunch (FFB). By using monthly data 1998-2007 period, an econometric approach of econometrics specially a vector autoregression model was applied in this study, used four variables, the price of fresh fruit bunch (FFB), the price of cooking oil, the price of foreign exchange rates and the price of coconut oil. Remembered that we used time series data, had trend and fluktuatif, unit root test must be done. The study uses Augmented Dicky Fuller Test (ADF) using software eviews 4.1.The result of vector autoregression indicates that the best contribute of fresh fruit bunch price are coconut oil price (t-1) about 2802.73, followed by cooking oil price (t-1) about 1821,07, and the exchange rates about 1161,67. The result of impulse response function indicates that a standar deviation from fresh fruit bunch price will increase fresh fruit bunch about 9961,992 make the increase of standard deviation effect of exchange rates about 232,8336. The result of Variance Decomposition of Fresh Fruit Bunch Price indicates that in the middle and short term the contribution of cooking Oil to Fresh Fruit Bunch has more contribution than coconut oil and the exchange rates, indicates that a few of coconut oil price has been taken for Fresh Fruit Bunch price. For long term Fresh Fruit Bunch price taken for cooking oil.