Analysing EU Accession Effects in Romania by a Multiregional I-O Model

The objective of this article is to assess labour income and employment effects in Romania coming from development policies defined in the proposed 2007-09 EU accession financial package. The methodology used is based on a multiregional I-O model, which allows capturing specificities and interrelationships among the 8 Romanian development regions and to know impact distribution on the territory. The I-O model is constructed from a multiregional I-O table derived by a three-stage estimation method. Impact is mapped through a Geographic Information System. Main results show that EU accession will lead to large positive effects in Romania, which vary according to the region considered. In this connection, the South and the North-East regions are those on which benefits tend to concentrate. Finally, policy would seem to reduce regional and sectoral income disparities, leading to more balanced development. On the contrary, in terms of employment, policy would increase divergences, albeit, from an analysis of single region economy, a general tendency to a reduction of sector disparities is noticed.