Analysis of countries' performances in individual Olympic Games using cluster analysis and decision trees: the case of Tokyo 2020

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate and understand the performance of countries in individual Olympic Games, specifically focusing on the Tokyo 2020 Olympics. Employing cluster analysis and decision trees, the research aims to categorize countries based on their representation, participation and success. Design/methodology/approach This research employs a data-driven approach to comprehensively analyze and enhance understanding of countries' performances in individual Olympic Games. The methodology involves a two-stage clustering method and decision tree analysis to categorize countries and identify influential factors shaping their Olympic profiles. Findings The study, analyzing countries' performances in the Tokyo 2020 Olympics through cluster analysis and decision trees, identified five clusters with consistent profiles. Notably, China, Great Britain, Japan, Russian Olympic Committee and the United States formed a high-performing group, showcasing superior success, representation and participation. The analysis revealed a correlation between higher representation/participation and success in individual Olympic Games. Decision tree insights underscored the significance of population size, GDP per Capita and HALE index, indicating that countries with larger populations, better economic standing and higher health indices tended to perform better. Research limitations/implications The study has several limitations that should be considered. Firstly, the findings are based on data exclusively from the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, which may limit the generalizability of the results to other editions. Practical implications The research offers practical implications for policymakers, governments and sports organizations seeking to enhance their country's performance in individual Olympic Games. Social implications The research holds significant social implications by contributing insights that extend beyond the realm of sports. Originality/value The originality and value of this research lie in its holistic approach to analyzing countries' performances in individual Olympic Games, particularly using a two-stage clustering method and decision tree analysis.