Analysis of the innovation strategy of technical‐intensive industries: scenario analysis viewpoint

Purpose – The purpose of this study is the analysis of innovation in technology‐intensive industry strategy, by applying scenario analysis (SA) to master the development of the market information and competitive environment. This study will utilize the technical development of the Sony video tape recorder (VTR) as a case study, and then provide more adequate decision information on the technical development strategy (TDS) planning process. Design/methodology/approach – Scenario analysis (SA) strategy assessment model will construct a future technical development model based on current data. The forecasting model of the cycle period is applied to future market technical innovation. Therefore, applying SA in this study can effectively connect historical information to the analysis of technology development. Findings – This study used the Sony VTR TDS as a case study that provides a strategy assessment model in a technology‐intensive industry for technical development strategy planning as the basis of decision‐making to aid technical forecasting. Result found that the R&D department is the core lifeline for the development of a company, and TDS is affected by the orientation of customer demand with impact on the development of TLC to form the cycle period of uncertainty. Originality/value – This model applied the properties of TDS assessment to grasp the development trend in the market, and it can enable the R&D department to integrate technical push and market demands pull. In turn, this results in a gain in the competitive edge for technical innovation through a combination of strategies and regulations.