Analysis of the rebound effect and induced effect of non-residential natural gas consumption : empirical evidence from China

Following the Paris Agreement, economic development demands energy services while reducing emissions. This study focuses on non-residential natural gas consumption, which plays a crucial role in the energy transition; however, market-based mechanisms are still in the early stages and have not yet been explored. Based on the analysis of data collected from 2000 to 2020 in China, this study constructs a simultaneous equation model to analyze the rebound and induced effects of non-residential natural gas consumption. This paper finds that industrial economic growth has a significant promoting effect on non-residential gas consumption. In addition, implementing and promoting natural gas utilization policies and increases in natural gas price can significantly reduce gas consumption intensity. This article innovatively calculates the rebound and induced effects of non-residential gas consumption, providing a decision-making reference for accelerating the realization of the dual-carbon goal.