Anticipations of effort and accuracy in multiattribute choice

This paper examines decision makers' ability to anticipate the effort and accuracy consequences of their decision strategies in multiattribute choice. Previous studies have examined experienced effort and accuracy associated with various strategies. However, if strategies are selected early in the decision process, strategy selection will be a function of anticipated effort and accuracy. Two experiments examine how well anticipations of effort and accuracy correspond to the experienced effort and accuracy required for decision making. Subjects in the first experiment chose the best alternative from each of 24 sets of loan applications described on 6 relevant attributes. Prior to each choice, they made anticipation judgments of the effort the choice will require and the accuracy it will yield. Independent variables include problem complexity, information display organization, and explicit feedback availability. The second experiment was similar to the first, further examining the effects of explicit accuracy feedback. The results of these two experiments indicate that anticipations deviate significantly from experienced consequences. Further, explicit feedback does not aid anticipations.