Approaches to Country Risk Analysis and Early Warning

This article lays out a framework for country risk analysis and early warning drawing on the methodologies developed by the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy Project (CIFP – www.carleton.ca/cifp). Special attention is given to the identifi cation of failed and fragile states using the CIFP state fragility index, and how the latter compares to other such indices. The rest of the paper proceeds in four parts. In the second section, we provide some concepts and defi nitions as they relate to early warning, state failure and country risk. The third section assesses structural risk indicators and events based monitoring methodologies. The fourth section provides a comparative ranking of countries, some initial fi ndings and results for the Middle East and North Africa. The fi fth and fi nal section concludes by discussing the policy implications of the analysis.