Artificial intelligence in the office and the factory : evidence from administrative software registry data

I use administrative data on artificial intelligence (AI) software created in Brazil to study its effects on the labor market. Owing to a unique copyright system, Brazilian firms have registered their software with the government since the 1980s, creating a detailed record of nearly all commercial AI applications developed in the country. Drawing on this registry, I show that AI is widely used not only in administrative tasks but also in production settings, where it primarily supports process optimization and quality control. Using an instrument based on variation in software development costs, I find that AI affects administrative and production workers differently. Among office workers, AI reduces employment and wages, particularly for middle-wage earners. Among production workers, it increases employment of low-skilled and young workers operating machinery. These results suggest that AI displaces routine office tasks while making machines more productive and easier to operate, leading to a net increase in employment.