Assessing global potential output growth : April 2026

Daniel de Munnik, Kristina Hess, Walter Muiruri, Tuuli McCully, Faiza Noor, Sabreena Obaid, Andrew Plummer, Louis Poirier, Abeer Reza, Jillian Schwartz

We present the annual update of the Bank of Canada staff estimates for global potential output growth. Growth in global potential output is expected to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon at just above 3%, underpinned by the general strength in trend productivity growth, including a boost from the adoption of artificial intelligence tools. Partially offsetting these gains are higher tariffs and persistent uncertainty about trade policy that hamper productivity and suppress capital deepening. In addition, population aging slows growth in trend labour input across all regions. These estimates served as key inputs to the analysis supporting the April 2026 Monetary Policy Report.

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Year of publication:	[2026] ; Last updated: May 25, 2026
Authors:	De Munnik, Daniel ; Hess, Kristina ; Muiruri, Walter ; McCully, Tuuli ; Noor, Faiza ; Obaid, Sabreena ; Plummer, Andrew ; Poirier, Louis ; Reza, Abeer ; Schwartz, Jillian
Publisher:	[Ottawa] : Bank of Canada
Subject:	Econometric, statistical and computational methods \| Real economy and forecasting \| Demographics and labour supply \| Digitalization and productivity \| Produktivität \| Productivity \| Wirtschaftswachstum \| Economic growth \| Welt \| World \| Arbeitsangebot \| Labour supply \| Produktionspotenzial \| Potential output \| Wirtschaftsprognose \| Economic forecast \| Digitalisierung \| Digitization

Extent:	1 Online-Ressource (circa 15 Seiten) Illustrationen
Series:	Staff analytical paper. - Ottawa : Bank of Canada, ISSN 3110-9195, ZDB-ID 3237177-9. - Vol. 2026, 20
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Graue Literatur ; Non-commercial literature ; Arbeitspapier ; Working Paper
Language:	English
Other identifiers:	10.34989/sap-2026-20 [DOI]
Classification:	E1 - General Aggregative Models ; E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment ; F0 - International Economics. General ; F1 - Trade ; O33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes ; O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015647202