Assessment of rural sustainable development and analysis and prediction of obstacles and coupled coordinated development : A case study of Zaozhuang City

In China, the Innovation Demonstration Zone for the National Sustainable Development Agenda is a key initiative for executing the United Nations (UN) 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The Zone also plays critical roles in addressing the developmental bottlenecks that China faces and sharing Chinese insights into global sustainable development efforts. On July 15, 2022, the State Council endorsed the Zone’s establishment in Zaozhuang City, Shandong Province, where it focuses on innovation-led sustainable development in rural areas. Research into the levels, impediments, interdependencies, and evolutionary trends of rural sustainable development is crucial. Therefore, this research aimed to assist in comprehensively assessing developmental challenges and facilitating the harmonious advancement of social, economic, and environmental aspects in rural areas. In pursuit of the three fundamental dimensions of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), namely development’s drivers, quality, and equity, this study was grounded in China’s national Rural Revitalization Strategy and the demands of sustainable development strategies. It also aligns with the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the associated SDG indicators. Focusing on four key areas, namely production elements, natural elements, social elements, and rural governance, this study developed an evaluation index system for assessing the level of rural sustainable development. It employed a range of analytical models, including the game theory-based combination empowerment method, barrier degree model, coupling degree model, coupling coordination degree model, and gray prediction GM(1,1) model, to analyze the status and evolving trends of rural sustainable development in Zaozhuang City from 2015 to 2022. The key findings were as follows: ① Relative to the baseline year 2015, the sustainable development level in Zaozhuang’s rural areas has shifted toward an improved state overall. ② The primary barrier to achieving rural sustainable development in Zaozhuang is the city’s rural governance system. ③ While the components of rural sustainable development in Zaozhuang are in the early stages of both basic and moderate coordination, an overall enhancement has occurred in their integrative coordination. ④ Between 2023 and 2025, the level of integrative coordination in Zaozhuang is expected to rise steadily. However, reaching a state of advanced coordination will require additional time for development.