Atomstromkosten und -risiken: Haftpflichtfragen und Optionen rationaler Wirtschaftspolitik

This analysis takes a closer look at the costs and risks of nuclear energy – including the considerable shadow subsidies allocated to nuclear power – a crucial issue after the Fukushima accident. The liability insurance in Germany covers only ¼ of the damages covered in the US, but in both countries the coverage is miniscule when compared to the damages to be expected in the case of a very serious nuclear power plant accident; the coverage ratio is between 0.1 and 10% of the expected damages. Thus for decades the nuclear power producers have implicitly obtained enormous shadow subsidies in Germany and other EU countries. This raises the issue of EU subsidy control and also one may ask why government has favored the most risky form of power production. Those who argue that nuclear power generation is a climate-friendly way of power generation – therefore the share of nuclear power generation should expand – have overlooked the strong impact of subsidized nuclear power generation on the global expansion of the energy-intensive industries: This structural impact implies that the expansion of nuclear energy indirectly raises the level of greenhouse gas emissions. If nuclear power generation would face adequate liability insurance the cost of production would rise by very strongly: a very conservative estimate puts the social cost of nuclear energy production at 0.85 ct/kWh which makes at twice as expansive as solar power – without any subsidy. Introducing adequate liability insurance for nuclear power generation would squeeze out this form of power generation which goes along with a negative value-added, at the same time the proposed new liability regime for nuclear power generation means that subsidies for renewable energy could be completely phased out. In Germany € 4 bill. allocated each year to subsidization of wind farming could be phased out relatively quickly as could be subsidization of solar energy – with an expected total subsidy of € 15 bill. in 2013 and even about 1% of GDP in 2020. After this date a tax cut of roughly 1% of GDP therefore is possible. A major accident in a nuclear power generator in Germany or France could destroy the financial stability of government since the budget consequences would be so enormous and thus could totally undermine the credibility of the Euro rescue umbrella. The European Commission and EU government should carefully look into the budgetary consequences of nuclear power production.