Belarus 2022: The "bridge" or the "corpse on the road" between Russia and Europe?

Domestic repression and external autonomy of Belarus have developed in cyclical patterns since its independence. The country's narrowed action space that followed its elections in August 2020 has affected, not least, the security situation in the Baltic Sea region. Relations between Minsk and Kyiv being crucial, war events in Ukraine in 2022 have significantly played into this already complex picture. Following this analysis, the paper delineates four major scenarios for developments in and around Belarus.