Biodiversity and climate change : first and second order effects in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries

Research on climate change impacts has so far largely focussed on the direct effects caused by changes in key climate parameters such as mean temperatures, levels of precipitation, likelihood of extreme weather events etc. The main changes in these factors are today well established and scientific projections for the coming decades widely accepted. Many of the predicted shifts and changes will have an impact on food production systems, in fisheries, forestry and agriculture including agro-pastoral systems. Yet, as discussed above, in the context of food security and with regard to the particular role of biological diversity, indirect and complex systemic links may be even more important in many cases.