Biological and Economic Implications of Projected Changes in the Relative Abundance of Major Fisheries in the Pacific Arctic Under Future Climate

Climate change is anticipated to have long-term and pervasive effects on marine ecosystems, with cascading consequences to many ocean-reliant sectors. For the marine fisheries sector, these impacts can be further influenced by future socio-economic and political factors. Hence, raises the need for robust projections to capture the range of potential biological and economic risks and opportunities posed by climate change to marine fisheries. Here, we project the future changes in the relative abundance of eight commercially-important fish and crab species in the Pacific Arctic region under the different CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways leading to contrasting future (2021-2100) scenarios of warming, sea ice concentration, and net primary productivity changes. Our results show differential patterns of change in the abundance and distribution across species and scenarios, highlighting potential winners and losers under future climate change. Specifically, under the extreme socioeconomic pathway (SSP585), Pacific cod and snow crab abundances are projected to increase and decrease in the region, respectively with concomitant zonal and meridional shifts in the centers of gravity. Importantly, projected changes in species abundance suggest that fishing at the same distance from the major port in the Bering Sea (i.e., Dutch harbor) could yield declining catches for highly valuable fisheries (e.g., Pacific cod and snow crab) under the SSP585 scenario. Declines in future catches of high value fisheries under SSP585 resulted to economic loss, despite an overall increase in the total potential catch dominated by low value fisheries. Albeit the results of this study should be taken with appropriate caution due to the simplistic model assumptions and projection uncertainties, these projected changes in abundances and shifting distributions could have relevant biological and economic repercussions on productivity of the Eastern Bering Sea ecosystem, commercial and subsistence fisheries, and effective management of transboundary resources