Blockbuster or Flop? Effects of Social Media on the Chinese Film Market

China is the most important foreign market for Hollywood blockbusters because of its large number of moviegoers. Exploring blockbusters in China and marketing strategies is essential for Hollywood studios. We analyzed data on 959 movies and users of Douban and Maoyan to determine the effects of these platforms on box office revenue. We theorized two modes of digital marketing, namely broadcasting and electronic word of mouth (eWOM), and used polynomial regression and random forest models to measure their effects. Volume on Douban and Maoyan is effective in increasing gross box office revenue. Maoyan is more effective in increasing revenue than is Douban. In addition, Maoyan affects revenue mostly through broadcasting, whereas Douban affects it through eWOM. Low-budget movies rely more on social media to succeed than do A-list films. Film distributors should allocate resources to increase the volume on Maoyan before a film’s release. If volume on Douban increases after release, films should be screened in more theaters