Breaking the Fall : Successful Homeless Interventions in the COVID Pandemic

Government income and housing interventions during the COVID pandemic had demonstrable benefits in reducing the growth of homelessness. Comparisons of projected versus actual growth in Los Angeles County from 2020 to 2022 validate the benefit of these interventions.This report offers three types of analysis to identify what curtailed homeless growth. First, the homeless count is re-analyzed for accuracy. Estimates for both the 2020 and 2022 counts are adjusted, based on sampling and other observed problems with these counts. Next, encounters between homeless individuals and government institutions are analyzed to understand the trajectory of homelessness during the pandemic. Then, the successful impacts of government interventions are identified. It concludes by projecting the growth in homelessness if there is a recession in 2023, and recommending steps for curtailing this growth.It appears that government income and housing interventions during the COVID pandemic reduced the forecasted growth of homelessness by 43 percent in Los Angeles County and 41 percent in California. We estimated that the same reduction in homelessness achieved in California was achieved across the United States.The growth in homelessness that we projected in 2020 was based on the ratio of growth in unemployment to growth in homelessness found in Los Angeles, California and the United States in the 2008 recession. We applied these ratios to the number of workers who became unemployed in the COVID pandemic to make our projections.These pessimistic but solidly grounded projections did not materialize. This success in curtailing the growth of homelessness is attributable to government interventions.Eviction moratoriums and cash payments kept households and workers intact during the COVID pandemic. Re-employment is a third, crucial intervention. This strategy has been under-utilized and should be a primary tool for combatting homelessness among low-income, high risk and unemployed workers