Bringing policy into space systems conceptual design : qualitative and quantitative methods

A change in government policy can send waves of crippling impacts through the design and development of publicly funded complex engineering systems. Thus it is important for system architects and designers to understand the interaction of policy with their systems, and to strive for policy robustness in their systems. To be policy robust is to successfully pass through policy changes that might arise during the course of system development in order to bring the system into operational use. The goal of this thesis research is to enable the creation of policy robust system architectures and designs through making policy an active consideration in the engineering systems architecting and design process. Qualitative and quantitative analysis methods are brought to bear on the problem using space systems as the application domain, and a process is set down through which policy can become an active consideration instead of a static constraint. Unique contributions of this thesis in the qualitative analysis of policy robust systems include new heuristics describing the interaction of policy and publicly funded engineering systems, as well as impact flow path diagrams for tracing policy interactions with technical engineering system parameters. Quantitative contributions include general relationships for the behavior of engineering system architecture sets under downward annual budget policy pressure, and the application of real options to measure the value of designing an engineering system to be policy robust to budget policy instabilities. Lastly, this research presents the first comprehensive quantification of U.S. space launch policy economic costs, and contributes relationships for estimating these costs on new space systems.