Business Cycles : Durations, Dynamics, and Forecasting

Frontmatter -- Contents -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- PART I: INTRODUCTION -- 1. Questions about Business Cycles -- PART II: BUSINESS CYCLE DURATIONS -- 2. Have Postwar Economic Fluctuations Been Stabilized? -- 3. Shorter Recessions and Longer Expansions -- 4. A Nonparametric Investigation of Duration Dependence in the American -- 5. Further Evidence on Business Cycle Duration Dependence -- 6. Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective -- 7. Regime Switching with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities -- PART III: BUSINESS CYCLE DYNAMICS -- 8. Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: A Reexamination -- 9. The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP -- 10. The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP: Comment -- 11. Long Memory and Persistence in Aggregate Output -- 12. Is Consumption Too Smooth? Long Memory and the Deaton Paradox -- 13. On the Power of Dickey-Fuller Tests against Fractional Alternatives -- PART IV: BUSINESS CYCLE FORECASTING -- 14. The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting -- 15. Scoring the Leading Indicators -- 16. Turning Point Prediction with the Composite Leading Index: An Ex Ante Analysis -- 17. Forecasting Output with the Composite Leading Index: A Real-Time Analysis -- 18. New and Old Models of Business Investment: A Comparison of Forecasting Performance -- 19. Comparing Predictive Accuracy -- Name Index -- Subject Index