CAN OPENNESS MITIGATE THE EFFECTS OF WEATHER SHOCKS?EVIDENCE FROM INDIA'S FAMINE ERA

A weakening dependence on rain-fed agriculture has been a hallmark of the economictransformation of countries throughout history. Rural citizens in developing countries to-day, however, remain highly exposed to fluctuations in the weather. This exposure affectsthe incomes these citizens earn and the prices of the foods they eat. Recent work has documented the signicant mortality and morbidity stress that rural households face in times ofadverse weather (Burgess, Deschenes, Donaldson, and Greenstone 2009, Kudamatsu, Persson, and Stromberg 2009, Yang and Maccini 2009). Famines { times of acutely low nominalagricultural income and acutely high food prices { are an extreme manifestation of this mapping from weather to death. Knowles (1924) describes these events as \agricultural lockouts" where both food supplies and agricultural employment, on which the bulk of therural population depends, plummet. The result is catastrophic with widespread hunger and loss of life.[...]