CANADIAN WHEAT EXPORT PROSPECTS IN THE ASIAN NOODLE MARKET: ANALYZING JAPAN AND KOREAN MILLING INDUSTRIES

The motivation for this study is the lack of knowledge of millers' preferences for noodle wheat in Asia, where noodle wheat is an expanding market segment. Data for the study are from interviews and questionnaires completed by millers in South Korea and Japan. Two different methodologies were applied--stated preference methods and semantic differential scales. Consistent results are seen from each method. Millers' choices of wheat with varying characteristics were analysed with multinomial logit models. These estimates are used to identify millers' preferred product profiles for various types of wheat and flour. Estimates are reported in the paper for millers' preferences for intrinsic quality features and trade contract terms for major types of wheat. Marginal analysis also yielded comparisons of millers' preferences in the two nations. In contrast to Australia and the United States, Canada does not produce or market a wheat variety that corresponds well to millers' preferred noodle wheat product profiles in terms of the wheat characteristics of falling number, protein level or dockage. Nor is Canada identified by millers in either of these nations as a preferred supplier of noodle wheat. Canada has a minor share of wheat exports to Korea but holds an appreciable share of Japanese wheat imports. However, Canada's market share of Japanese wheat imports may be more reflective of Japan's current regulated import process, rather than millers' preferences. Investment in product development and marketing will be necessary if Canada's share of the noodle wheat market in both Japan and Korea is to be increased.