Capturing Preferences Under Incomplete ScenariosUsing Elicited Choice Probabilities

Manski [13] proposed an approach for dealing with a particular form respondentuncertainty in discrete choice settings, particularly relevant in survey based researchwhen the uncertainty stems from the incomplete description of the choice scenarios.Specically, he suggests eliciting choice probabilities from respondents rather than theirsingle choice of an alternative. A recent paper in IER by Blass et al. [1] further developsthe approach and presents the rst empirical application. This paper extendsthe literature in a number of directions, examining the linkage between elicited choiceprobabilities and the more common discrete choice elicitation format. We also providethe rst convergent validity test of the elicited choice probability format vis-a-vis thestandard discrete choice format in a split sample experiment. Finally, we discuss thedierences between welfare measures that can be derived from elicited choice probabilitiesversus those that can obtained from discrete choice responses and illustrate thesedierences empirically.[...]