Carbon taxation in Russia: Prospects for a double dividend and improved energy efficiency

This study analyses the sectoral and macroeconomic impact of carbon taxes on the Russian economy, one of the world's most energy- and carbon-intensive economies, while assessing the hypothesis of a double dividend. Substituting carbon taxes for labour taxes can reduce GHG emissions and enhance welfare by improving the efficiency of the tax system — a strong double dividend. The analyses confirm, when capital is not internationally mobile, that a double dividend is likely to occur under (i) a high elasticity of labour supply, (ii) high elasticities of substitution between labour and the capital-energy aggregate, (iii) low elasticities of substitution between capital and energy. It is the tax-shifting effect between capital and labour that is crucial. In contrast, welfare losses resulting from the environmental tax reform may be substantial if capital is internationally mobile.